Will People Pay for It? How to Test Your Offer Before You Build More

Find the one assumption that would sink the plan if it turned out to be wrong. Test it in the smallest credible way, within a week. Decide in advance which result means continue, shape, stop or test again, and then watch what people actually do.

That is the method Nagawa Lule and Beth Zukowsky taught at our September 9 session, From Plan to Proof. Nagawa is a consultant, certified AI trainer and marketer. Beth is an AI transformation leader and co-founder of AI Between Worlds. The session picked up from their August workshop, From Overlooked to In Demand, where participants chose their audience, message and offer. This one put those choices under pressure.

What is a high-risk assumption?

It is the belief that would make the rest of your work irrelevant if it is wrong. "Untested assumptions can compound," Beth said, and they tend to hide inside plans that feel finished.

Their assumption audit takes five minutes:

1. Write down three things you are currently treating as true about your business.
2. Label each one. Know means you have direct evidence. Think means you have some evidence or a reasonable inference. Guess means belief without enough evidence behind it.
3. Circle the one with the biggest downside: the one that would cost the most time, money or opportunity if it proved false.

Be stricter than feels comfortable. As Nagawa pointed out, a few likes, encouraging friends or one unusually enthusiastic customer do not move a guess into the know column.

Why aren't likes proof that people will buy?

Likes and compliments show that something caught attention. Demand shows up in behavior, and the evidence gets stronger as the customer has more at stake.

Beth and Nagawa laid it out as a ladder, weakest to strongest:

• Likes and compliments
• A customer describing the problem unprompted, with what it costs them
• A customer explaining what they already do about it
• A question about price or availability
• Booking a call or requesting a proposal
• Placing a deposit or paying for a pilot

Nagawa's worked example: say you believe purpose-driven founders will pay for monthly LinkedIn support because they lack time. Conversations can confirm that time is the problem. They cannot confirm anyone will pay. The strong test is a small number of clearly priced pilot places, offered to qualified founders, and then watching who books.

What should you ask potential customers?

Beth's exercise: write three non-leading questions, each built to draw out a story instead of a yes or no.

1. One about past behavior: what happened the last time they had this problem.
2. One about cost or consequence: what the problem costs them today.
3. One about their current alternative: what they use now, and how they chose it.

Nagawa's contrast makes the difference clear. "Would an AI training program be useful?" is a weak question. A stronger one: "tell me about the last time your team struggled to use AI safely or effectively."

How do you price an offer when you're not sure?

Treat the number as a test. Nagawa's line: "The price is a hypothesis built from confidence and remains a hypothesis until customers have to make a real decision."

Competitor prices are an input, and only the right competitors count. "A genuine comparable matches more than a label," Nagawa said. Match on the buyer, the outcome, the scope, the access and the delivery economics.

Beth's example: two 90-minute workshops. One serves 100 attendees with standard materials and no follow-up. The other serves 12 leaders with a diagnostic, tailored examples and a follow-up review. Same length, same topic, two entirely different offers. "The label is the least useful comparison," she said.

Aim for two strong anchors. Beth's order for finding them: provider pages with published prices first, then reputable marketplaces and directories, then recent, credible industry research.

How do you decide what a test result means?

Set the rule before you run the test. Nagawa's four outcomes: continue, shape, stop, or test again. Writing the rule first matters because, in her words, "evidence becomes remarkably persuasive when we desperately want it to agree."

Then keep it small. Launch within seven days, record what people did, and hold the result up against the rule you wrote.

Can AI tell you whether a business idea is good?

No. Nagawa was clear that AI can sharpen your questions, surface confirmation bias and find gaps in your thinking. It cannot validate the market or stand in for real customer evidence. Beth suggested a better job for it: ask AI to find the weakest evidence in your plan, then go get the real proof from people.

Frequently asked questions

How long should a validation test take?
Start a small, credible test within seven days, and give it about two weeks, with a start date and a decision rule set in advance.

What counts as strong evidence of demand?
Action with something at stake: booking a call, requesting a proposal, placing a deposit or paying for a pilot.

Should I price based on what competitors charge?
Use a competitor's price only when they match your buyer, outcome, scope and access. A matching label is not enough.

Test yours with us

Bring the offer you are working on to Curious Conversations, every Wednesday at 3:00 PM ET. It is free, and real questions worked through out loud are exactly what it is for.

Everything we run: https://luma.com/TheHouseofCuriosity